The Bracktrack

Brexit is history. Brankruptcy is the future. Perhaps. Unless there is something that can stop this slippery ride into Euro exile. Perhaps there is yet time for a Bracktrack. As time has passed, I’m beginning to wonder if  our exit from the EU will actually happen. I’m sensing doubt in the Leave hierarchy. A lot of people are.

There’s currently an online petition doing the rounds calling for a second referendum. I think it’d be successful, but there will be no new referendum so soon after the first based only on an online petition. A more likely route to Referendum II is through a snap general election later this year, with the winning party swept to victory on a platform to rerun the referendum. I feel it is less likely that their manifesto will promise to annul the original result outright without a second vote. Such a promise would lack any real legitimacy unless they took more than 50% of the vote, which is highly unlikely.

The most likely route to a second referendum comes, in my opinion, from the Leavers themselves. Cameron has done the dirty on Boris. He’s refused to invoke Article 50 himself. Worse, he’s not going to let anyone else touch that hot potato for three months. That button to invoke Article 50 might be labelled ‘Independence’ right now. I suspect in three months time it will be flashing red and be labelled ‘Self Destruct’. That would put Boris, assuming he is PM by then, in a bit of a sticky position.

Does he have a way to wriggle himself out of this awkward hole that he’s dug himself. I do believe that he has. And, to his credit, he put the safety rope down the hole himself, just before he jumped. Prior to the start of the campaign proper, Boris proposed that a Leave vote would empower the UK with the ability to go to Brussels and get the deal that they actually wanted, before holding a second referendum. It’s the nuclear bomb of diplomacy.  Take the UK and the EU to the brink of collapse, lay down demands, look them in the eyes and dare them to say no. The Irish did this with the Lisbon Treaty. And it worked. With much higher stakes this time round, would the EU blink again?

It also gives the EU the opportunity to focus on a few much needed reforms. The level of democracy and openess within the bloc needs to be improved. And the unfettered freedom of movement of people is clearly a big issue for most EU states. I just hope that a deal can be reached before we’ve entirely burned our bridges.

 

19 Comments

  • By the way, I’ll remind you that financial market turbulence is NOT about Britain leaving the EU. Rather it’s about Italy, Spain, Portugal, or (heaven forbid) France leaving the EU. Italian, Spanish and French stock markets were much harder hit than the FTSE. The global banking elite are terrified that they won’t be repaid all that money they lent to Southern Europe.

    And it’s a rational fear.

    Saludos,

    Kim G
    CDMX, México
    Which has it’s own deteriorating trade position to worry about.

    • Given this, do you not think that Brexit will turn rather sour if the leaving disease becomes contagious and those German banks do all collapse as a result?

      • The Italian banks will be the first to collapse, something they’re doing right now. Italian non-performing loans are now about 17% of bank assets, vs capital that’s got to be a single-digit figure at best.

        Brexit isn’t causing European bank failures, rather it’s making people think more about them. After 2008, the USA did real stress tests on its banks and forced them to raise capital while the Europeans dithered. Soon the price for that will be paid. I fully expect mendacious British and other politicians to blame it on Brexit, but Brexit is not the cause. Out-of-control bankers and a near-dead European economy are the cause.

        • The European economy is a pretty diverse place, and some parts would be doing much better if they weren’t encumbered by other parts. But here we enter the realm of the Euro, which I believe was a mistake, but which is not somthing the UK is part of.

          Brexit is not causing already troubled banks to fall. But it will have a negative impact on our own economy.

          • Brexit will be blamed for much that likely is already baked into the cake. If it even happens. Despite the vote and Cameron’s resignation, I still think there’s a fair chance that the establishment yet manages to foil it.

          • It will be, I don’t doubt that. But to be fair, how exactly do you separate the percentages that are down to Brexit from the percentages that are currently inherent in the system?

          • That’s almost impossible. However, I would note that all the organizations predicting economic gloom and doom for Britain post Brexit have absolutely pathetic forecasting histories. So in truth, no one really knows what the impact will be. But I’ll stick with my thesis that it’s in Europe’s interest to make things work as well as possible.

          • What will be will be. At the very least, I’m hoping my job stays secure, a decent bit of inflation with my salary keeping up, and low interest rates to stick around. What new home owner doesn’t wish for this little trio of joy?

  • See my other comments on this series. As for a re-vote, that’s possible. I think Nigel Farage senses as much as he’s now calling for immediate invocation of article 50. But I read an article saying that most Brits do not want another poll. Still, the idea of using this vote to get what the UK wants from the EU would be clever, and not unprecedented.

    But I think Great Britain will do quite well without being hitched to a failing EU.

    Saludos,

    Kim G
    CDMX, México
    Where soon negotiations on a new wall will become the news of the day.

  • Sheesh! Yer Out! Get over it, and get on with it… The amount of whingeing going on is daft! The sun came up this morning, the markets are recovering from the shock ( some good bargains to be had!) and Sterling is coming back after the “Fright”! Doom&Gloom it ain’t! The only unfortunate ramification of the Vote is that some scum/vermin have crawled out from under their bigoted rocks to THINK they are now allowed to be uncivil to other Brits. This is a short term issue that will swiftly dealt with by decent citizens. Now having had my say, please re pull last weeks Lotto numbers, as mine were not in the results! LOL!

    • At this moment, we’re most definitely not out. We’re in. We haven’t even activated the process to take us out. You may have noticed that there now seems to be some reluctance to hurry that process. The ‘comeback’ sterling and the FTSE 250 is equivalent to scoring one when you’ve already let ten in. And this has only just begun, amigo! This will be a process lasting years, not months!

      In three months time, if things are going badly, do you genuinely believe anyone will be in a great rush to push that button if they feel there is a way out?

      The racism aspect.This wasn’t unexpected. I was pretty clear what I thought before the referendum…

      http://garydenness.co.uk/2016/06/17/brexit-unintended-consequences/

      I’ll make another prediction. If we continue down this path, it will not be a short term issue. It won’t be a phase. It will become an ingrained, nasty stain on the fabric of Britain that will lead to social division and discord greater than we have ever seen.

      • Britain is facing some significant financial issues that have nothing to do with Brexit, namely a deteriorating trade position. In that sense, the clobbering of the pound is probably a good thing. Yes, the FTSE is coming back, but the pound looks to be in the dog house for a while.

        • Happily for me, but less happily for Mexico, the peso seems to have followed sterling off the cliff. My buying power for our September holiday has so far not been affected.

        • Happily for me, but less happily for Mexico, the peso seems to have followed sterling off the cliff. My buying power for our September holiday has so far not been affected.

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