One of the earliest news stories that I have a memory of was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. I was six years old. It was through that prism that I learned of the Cold War, and both conflicts ran in the background on the television for a decade. The Afghan mujahideen were to be admired. That a number of them weren’t Afghan was neither here nor there.
Afghanistan fascinated me. I read John Simpson’s books, which saw him travel to the country many times, once in search of the lapis lazuli mines that supplied Egypt with the stone thousands of years ago. It was put to use in making Tutankhamen’s funereal mask. I watched the rise of the Taliban with horror. I’ve watched documentaries, and I read the Kite Runner, one of the most magnificent books ever written. Later, I watched the film. There have been films and television series aplenty covering the last two decades of life in Afghanistan.
The result of NATOs adventure was utterly predictable the moment boots hit the soil. The timing and style of NATOs departure was set largely in stone by Trumps deal. Biden was left with a simple choice: leave or mount a large scale re-invasion. The style of NATOs departure confirms he made the right decision. It isn’t a pretty sight. It never is. People who think otherwise are kidding themselves.
A new chapter starts for Afghanistan. We can but hope that it’s a short lived chapter and that better times come sooner rather than later. But who really knows what the future holds? The Chinese are Taliban friendly at the moment, but there’s the Uigher caveat. Perhaps it will be their turn next to burn an empire in the wilderness of Afghanistan, the stage of the Great Game that may never end. A country that I’d love to visit, but one that has been out of bounds for my generation. Yet, in its own way, it has been the story of my generation.
The photograph is mine and therefore not from Afghanistan. It was taken in New Delhi in 2017, the closest I have even gotten to Kabul.
The Mexile 
Well thought my friend.
We maybe needed to visit after 9/11, we did not need to stay. To say that we were a bunch of bumblers from the start would be too kind. It is history, in the books, not a pretty chapter at all.
“Biden was left with a simple choice: leave or mount a large scale re-invasion. The style of NATOs departure confirms he made the right decision. It isn’t a pretty sight. It never is. People who think otherwise are kidding themselves.” The new president has courage in spades. It will cost him and myself for that matter but I’m very glad he did what he did, the man has real courage.
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There was a sound case for going into Afghanistan. Even for staying a while, in limited numbers. But once bin Laden was done for and al Qaeda smashed up, a decision needed to be made – either to leave or stay indefinitely. And Norm, I genuinely think that there’s a perfectly reasonable argument on humanitarian and geopolitical grounds for an indefinite stay. There’s no good answer to this, only a range of bad solutions. Biden picked the least bad solution for the US and the West. It’s the worst decision for every decent Afghan.
The argument that we could have stayed in Afghanistan and maintained the status quo of the last year or two with the current manpower levels and expenditure is pure silliness. We’ve got to where we are with deals done two/three years ago. This was the inevitable (and perhaps even desired) outcome.
Two good articles today that are a good read….
https://garydenness.co.uk/post/659854844801187840/the-global-policeman
https://garydenness.co.uk/post/659853375228297216/the-great-game
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By the by, do you really think that Biden will have a price to pay domestically? It seems to me that the decision would be pretty popular with both Democrat and Republican voters, whilst simultaneously sending Trumpers into fits of laughable denial. Win-win-win.
I imagine that the US withdrawal is less popular abroad. But there’s no votes to be won in Berlin, Paris or London. This speech is worth a few minutes of your time…
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Every time the US left an area in Afghanistan, it would be over run in hours by the Taliban, it has been the case for years. Why would the end game be any different?
As far as the neighbor hood, it was a mess when we got there, it will be a mess when China, Iran and Pakistan leave as well. I think China will fine its new subjects a little more unruly that their current Muslim subjects.
I blame Bush the younger for the mess, Obama for not putting an end to the foolishness in his first year, Trump was Trump so he was not going to make a real decision-I knew that when he was elected. Biden made it clear months ago that he was tipping over the game and going home-they were warned, everyone still in that country that holds a foreign passport, had plenty of time to leave before it got nuts. As to the nationals who want out, they will get similar treatment that our British loyalists got after Great Britain decided that America was a lost cause. The level of brutality will be great, it is a brutal place. The locals knew the end game would be nasty, both sides did and nasty it is.
As to those who fell in our foreign wars-it is exactly what they signed up for: Killing people for a living has real consequence, always has.
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Can’t disagree with any of that. It’s a harsh and pretty horrible world sometimes. In some places more than others.
As for your last paragraph, spot on. On day one of basic training at RAF Halton, we had a meet and greet conference with the Wing Commander.
Hello, lovely to see you, I’m sure you’ll all have a great time and just to quickly check…you all know why you’re here, yes? To kill people. You job is to be part of a machine, the primary purpose of which is to kill people. All good with you?
Combat is usually a two way thing as far as killing goes. I signed up for a decent wage, job security and a bit of adventure. What wars I might see, how justifiable they might be and what the outcomes of them would be we’re not important. I was sensible enough to pick a job that was as safe as it gets. I was unlucky that it didn’t really take off for me…
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Very well written.
It was an effort destined for failure, even more so than Vietnam. I know people who went there, or had children who went there, who are permanently physically and mentally injured. It ruined many lives needlessly.
I can only hope we have learned a lesson about wanting the rest of the world to be like us. We in Canada have enough to do trying to help our own people have decent living conditions, and should have learned by now, through our wasted humanitarian gifts to Haiti, Afghanistan and various African countries, that the people in charge don’t care about the suffering of the common folk.
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Almost all invasions and occupations of other nations ultimately fail. How many successful invasions/occupations can you think of? I’m stuck on Wales, which kinda worked because England cleverly assimilated their small neighbour on the sly and disguised it as a merger. But nearly a thousand years later, it still rankles with the Welsh. And the more distant and different the nations involved, the less likely that there will be any sort of measurable success. Empires only ever exist for any notable length of time through implementation of oppressive and/or genocidal policy.
I am confident in just one thing. If any lesson has been learned, it will soon be forgotten.
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It’s not just the U.S. and Russia who pulled out of Afghanistan. If I remember my history correctly, in the 19th century Britain unsuccessfully tried to exert its control over the area.
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I think Alexander the great was the last foreigner to have any success in that country.
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It still came to an end eventually.
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Indeed, we Brits have been here before. Although that was before my time.
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Leaving Afghanistan had long ago become an inevitably, a move President Obama could not bring himself to make, even though urged to do so by his vice-president. It was not the leaving that bothers me. It was the complete lack of planning that will drag President Biden’s reputation down at least a notch. And his blaming of the Afghan people was far below his usual-generous spirit. Even members of his party see it was an executive error.
I will let the crystal ball gazers predict the future for Afghan. For now, though, there will be plenty of “allies” who will be looking at the red Chinese steamroller and wondering whether now is not as good time as any to switch teams. Just ask Free China and Hong Kong how that scenario works.
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Biden’s speech might not have been kind, but was it inaccurate or even unfair? We went from ‘Taliban will be at doors of Kabul in three months’ to ‘ding dong, guess who’s back’ in about five minutes. They raced from Kandahar to Kabul in less time than it took our foreign secretary to accept that he probably shouldn’t be on holiday in Crete and might possibly need to scuttle back to Whitehall.
There was no collapse of Afghan forces. Huge numbers of them simply switched allegiances as per deals they’d been doing with Mullah Baradar since his release from prison a couple of years ago, and in line with the US/Taliban deal. And why wouldn’t they? They’ve suffered terrible losses for years and haven’t been paid in months.
And whilst not pretty, there’s a very reasonable argument that what has happened* is probably the best of the most likely outcomes for both Afghanistan and NATO forces. There’ll be no civil war. And the evacuation is going ahead with considerably less violence than was dished out to Generals Elphinstone and Gromov as they departed the stage.
My crystal ball isn’t terribly reliable. Who do you think we should be wishing good luck to, the Afghans or the Chinese?
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I have long ago abandoned my crystal ball. HIstory has a way of working itself out. Who would think that Vietnam was actually look to America for protection from China (though I think that may now have changed)? Every scene is just that. A scene. The play goes on.
Or as Sondheim would have it:
The thing that really matters is the game
It’s more than just the winning, it’s the game
That moment when the card is turned
And nothing is the same–
The only thing that matters is the game
By the way, it appears the Tokyo game is afoot. Details to follow.
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Scenes, or chapters….either way it’s a never ending story. We hope.
I look forward to hearing about your Tokyo trip.
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