Most people understand that the Ukrainians have little choice but to fight till victory. Most folk understand that the best course of action for NATO – the safest long term course of action – is to provide them with the means of evicting Russia from their country. Sure, there are some folk in the west still shouting in favour of Putin. They still blame NATO. They’re still wrong. They’re still on the side of fascism. I’ve referred to them as supporters of fascism, because I’m polite and like to leave a little room for providing some benefit of doubt. But it’s Day 224. They’ve had ample time to become informed. To repent. Can we just call them fascists now?
There’s another group of people making their voices heard just lately. They are calling for a negotiated peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. They insist that this is how all wars end eventually, and so they argue that Ukraine and Russia might just as well cut to the chase, put pen to paper, seal the deal, shake hands, move on and stop the killing. Alas. They haven’t thought this through very hard. Or else they are moving toward fascism themselves.
Wars do not usually end through negotiated peace deals. They normally end through one side bludgeoning the other into submission on the battlefield and then forcing terms to be accepted at gunpoint. This is not a negotiated peace deal. The West forcing Ukraine to accept a deal is appeasement, which doesn’t have a great track record. And this is also not a negotiated peace deal. Signing any agreement with a fascist despot who has a long history of disregarding treaties and agreements is an act of gross stupidity that is almost guaranteed to bite one in the backside. And this too is not a negotiated peace deal.
I am more certain of how this ends than I was on Day 5, although nothing is guaranteed. I feel my post back then still reads well. I think the Ukrainians will be more confident today of final victory. I think the long term outlook for Putin, and Russia, is grim. The biggest question marks at this moment are whether Putin attempts to detonate a nuclear device of some sort, somewhere. And who gets to keep Crimea.
Ultimately, I suspect that the Russians will be the ones making concessions at the end of all this. Ending hostilities with Ukraine is the easy part. Signing deals that’s accept Ukraine will be a nation free to join NATO and the EU will sting. But they will, because they’ll be signing at the end of a barrel. A barrel that fires western cash, privilege, technology, participation and membership of the civilised world. I strongly suspect that Putin will not be a signatory to any of these deal.
I think we were too slow to confront fascism in the East. And I think there’s too many folk for comfort here at home who need to have a long, hard look at themselves in the mirror, and reevaluate what exactly their values and principles are, and where they sit on the political spectrum.
The photo is a sheet of red paper from which Remembrance Day poppies have been cut.
The Mexile 
Politically speaking, these are curious times in the U.S. The Republicans were always fire-breathing anti communists. But now, thanks to Trump and some commentators on Fox News, a sizable faction of the GOP is supporting Putin. Can’t figure that out. Then again the Reps, usually the party of law and order and police, are supporting the mob that invaded the Capitol and assaulted the cops there.
Ukraine is not some insignificant country far away, but a piece of real estate roughly the size of France, right in the middle of Europe. Western nations looked the other way when Putin grabbed Crimea, and so he went after the rest of the pie by invading Ukraine.
You’re right that you don’t “negotiate” peace; one side wins and the other loses. To negotiate away another chunk of Ukraine sounds too much like Chamberlain “negotiating” with Germany over Sudetenland and pretending that would be the end of it.
Still, I don’t see any way out for Putin, short of doing what the Americans did in Vietnam and “declare victory and go home.”
al
LikeLiked by 2 people
Well put Al.
Russia’s invasion Ukraine is hardly an isolated incident. I wrote a post four or five years ago titled Act of War, after Russia used a chemical weapon in the UK. I argued then that Russia should be economically and politically isolated. One of the commenters on that post argued strongly for appeasement, then went off down Conspiracy Theory Lane. Nothing has really changed since then.
There’s a range of ways that this ends, and none of the likely ones end well for Putin.
LikeLike
They’re still on the side of fascism: Only too true and that is the crux of the problem, too few are willing to call fascist political thought by its proper name. They like dancing around China’s system as a hybrid communist organization but it is as close to a pure fascist system as I’ve ever seen. Russia even sports a symbol on its ordinance that stands in for a swastika. You are so right, we fight the fascists now or we’ll be dealing with homegrown fascist behavior from their fellow travelers here in the west too soon.
The fact is, we can’t blink, the police state wants in, it has the ability to achieve its goals today with our current surveillance technology.
The east will use atomics if they think we in the west are too weak to respond in a meaningful way. The doomsday clock will never stop ticking, MAD is more important today than anytime in my 66 years. It is grim but not unsolvable. One must be willing to go, to keep the thugs at bay.
And yes, call them out for being fascists, it is only right.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Well FYI, not everyone who blames NATO’s aggressive actions over the past decades is pro-Putin. And also, those who are in favor of peace are not as a consequence fascists. And I personally consider such views rather insulting.
Sorry, friend. But had to say it.
LikeLike
Ed, what on earth has NATO got to do with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Ukraine aren’t in NATO. They’d like to be, for obvious reasons. They absolutely should have been allowed to join back in 2008, along with Georgia. But they weren’t allowed to join. The best they’ve ever got is a promise to look at membership again one day. But the Germans and French vetoed membership in 2008 and nothing has changed since. Putin was given assurances by the Germans at the beginning of this year that Ukraine wouldn’t be joining NATO.
Putin has long made clear what he wants. He wants the USSR back. He’s taking it, bite by bite. He’s a fascist, by every description of the word Ed. He’s used radioactive and biological weapons in the UK. Committed WW2 style war crimes when flattening parts of Chechnya and Syria. Assassinated dozens of Russians in European cities. Facilitated the use of chemical weapons in the Middle East. Funded Wagner operations worldwide. Paid folk in the Middle East to kill UK and US soldiers. Run a mass doping programme of Russian athletes. Invaded parts of Georgia and Moldova. Interfered in the electoral process in Europe and the US. He invaded parts of Ukraine in 2014. And now he’s trying to take the rest of it. And not because of NATO, Ed. Much as Tucker Carlson and other Putin apologists would like folk to believe.
We’ve seen atrocities in Europe reminiscent of the 1940s, committed by Russians. We’ve been here before, in Europe. Putin isn’t the first of his breed. There’s no secret to who or what he is or how things go from here. This isn’t a surprise. “Peace” is when Russian troops are returned to Russia. The idea of a ‘peace deal’ that gives Putin 20% of Ukraine isn’t a peace deal. It’s temporarily appeasing a fascist. And it won’t last, either.
Putin is a fascist Ed. There’s no ifs or buts about it. And much as we’d all like peace, and the prosperity that comes with it, we all have to make a call where we stand on this issue. I stand against fascism, always.
LikeLike
Well I would say Putin is more Caesarian in his outlook. And unfortunately the rather Byzantine nature of the Russian state makes it unlikely that his own people are going to toss him out anytime soon. So that’s part of it too.
I’m not the only one talking about NATO though. https://goodmanspeaks.com/2022/02/23/ukraine-was-predicted/policy/
But you seem to be with the majority in all of this. So I guess we’ll just see how it goes.
A bit of local color: There ‘s a guy that owns a house 3 doors down from me that after the invasion started, painted a SUPPORT UKRAINE thing onto the back window of his new Jaguar. And now he’s got a big Ukrainian flag out front also. So evidently he’s a Ukrainian. But he’s safe pretty much — the local Russian expats here don’t like Putin either. LOL. This is 5400 miles from Kiev.
LikeLike
You’re not the only person talking about NATO Ed, that is true. But all talk of blaming NATO falls over when asked to show how it is relevant, because Ukraine was neither in NATO, nor in line to join NATO. Quite the opposite. I’d also ask what the problem with NATO membership is. Every country should be free to join trading and security blocks.
Importantly, your views on NATO and Russia/Ukraine in general are probably more nuanced that the MAGA type of thinking that the ire of my post was directed at.
Different European countries have different types of Russian expat. In the UK, we have the wealthy sort who are doing their best to keep their heads down. I wouldn’t have crossed paths with these folk outside of Harrods. I’ve met a few Ukrainians over the last six months, folk who’ve escaped the carnage. I give them free rail vouchers when I can, to help them out.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Free rail vouchers! Well that’s good.
LikeLike