We’re fully ‘reopening’ in just ten days time. Freedom Day, as it has become known, is almost upon us. The last vestiges of the coronavirus restrictions, including the wearing of face masks and social distancing will be removed. Hurrah! Normal life can resume. Three cheers for Boris! Hip, hip, hooray! Oooh, that was a quiet-ish cheer. About 128,000 decibels lower than I expected. Anyway, what really happens now?
We are reopening whilst experiencing rocketing numbers of new infections, more that the whole of the EU. (Seems silly to reopen just now then). And this is before we reopen – are there any wide spread, high profile calls to go back into lockdown? (Erm…no. No, there aren’t.) Hospitalisations and deaths remain very low. (Ah, well that’s the important thing). Although log scales suggest that deaths are once again increasing exponentially. (Really? That’s a worry). Although in the last few days, there’s a hint of levelling off in infections. (Phew).
The virus will now make it’s way through millions of unvaccinated youngsters. (But they don’t die, so no probs). About 1 to 2% will suffer Long Covid though. (That sounds like an NHS crisis in the making). But hospitalisations are low – lockdown was always only about preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed. (True, dat). Of course, millions of infections and isolations will leave the workforce rather shortmanned. (Will industry cope??) So the government are going reduce the sensitivity of the tracing app to enable infected people to carry on as usual. (Does anyone even have that installed anymore?)
The truth is that no one really knows exactly what happens next. Israel offers some markers. But the UK will be the first highly vaccinated, major economy with a sizeable population to reopen and take a hit from a fresh wave of a new and highly infectious variant of the coronavirus. We have reached that sweet spot of uncertainty. When exactly is the best moment to throw caution to the wind? Guys and gals, we’re going to have a crack at it and we’ll let you know in a few weeks.
I have a hunch how this goes though. Infections, hospitalisations and deaths will go up. But the vaccine wall will hold for most. There’s a whole load of tragedy headed the way of those who can’t or won’t get the jab. Delta appears to be more severe as well as more infectious. But as a society, we’ll get through. We’ll likely ride another wave in winter. But we’ll get through that too. And I’ll go on a few foreign holidays.
The journey will be accompanied by wails of hysteria on both sides. I’ll remain a bit more sympathetic to the side that doesn’t want people to die. I’ll likely not wear a face mask in most situations. Perhaps I’ll keep one handy. Just in case. I do remember the first time I donned one, in a Waitrose supermarket. I was a tiny bit reluctant. I felt a bit like a dick. Did I look like a bit of a dick? But I got used to it quick enough. It’ll be the same now, in reverse.
I stepped out on to the platform a while ago and took the photo. I could feel the sun warm my back as I took the photo. There are few better feelings.
The Mexile 
lockdown was always only about preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed. (True, dat). That was the case and is the case but the urge to tell other people what to do is strong in us all, even those who do not have a tiny bit of authority over our fellows. Most regulation is born of that urge. People do not like being told what to do, even if it is for their own good; most of the reluctant vaccine polity here in the states think Trump a fine fellow. I say, let them be.
On the other hand, if you really want to kick that hornet nest down the road. Mandate a RFD chip implant that tells anyone with a reader if a person has had their shots. Que up Mr. Orwell please…
LikeLike
There’s an Economist article that purports to show how many people want some of the most drastic restrictions to last forever. Governments loves those folks. But it’s easy to get too excited with polls like this. They’re a small minority at best. And the timing and phrasing of questions is everything. On poverty, I’ll tell you I believe in all sorts of humane and decent things. If I’ve just shared a crammed and poorly ventilated train carriage with a homeless person on a hot day, I’ll tell you I want them all drowned in bleach.
https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/07/10/some-britons-crave-permanent-pandemic-lockdown
LikeLike
The Delta variant does not yet seem to have taken off yet here in Ohio, unlike some states. I am resuming a more normal social life, although all of friends are vaccinated too. However, when I go into a store, I still put on the mask. I don’t care if I am only one of a few that are wearing them. Cases are climbing again In Mexico, and I have ordered some more N95 masks to use down there when I return in August.
LikeLike
The Delta variant is an exotic brand from a faraway country for a lot of the world right now. That’s unlikely to remain the case. Delta could easily put another quarter million Mexicans in the ground before the year is out. Elsewhere may suffer worse still. It’s looking more likely that it’s more severe than Alpha as well as more transmissible.
There are definitely situations where masks will remain a sensible community/personal defence.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2007800
LikeLike
My next door neighbor is in ICU with covid. He had both his phizer shots 3 months ago. Hang on to your masks.
LikeLike
Sorry to hear that. There’s definitely still a lot of crap ahead of us. I hope he pulls through.
More than half of all Covid deaths in the UK are vaccinated people. This is needlessly getting some people down. Given that we’ve vaccinated the 50+ age group that accounted for 99% of covid deaths, and that the vaccine is not 100% foolproof, you’d expect most deaths to now occur in vaccinated individuals.
An interesting stat – a vaccinated 80 year old is at equal risk of death as an unvaccinated 50 year old.
LikeLike
We and probably you too have been watching the soccer and tennis and wondering will they be super spreader events? So many people in close proximity and few masks between them. All we can do is wait and see with bated breath, there are so many variables, we will know in two weeks!
We are in a similar position here and we can go maskless now if we wish. I’ve decided to continue wearing one as I broke a front tooth recently and it hides it until my dentist can oblige. We got mixed doubles which might be a mixed blessing hopefully but we will have to hang out to see if we are covered and that’s the scary part. The next big one will be the opening of the border to the neighbours from the south. They’ve been clamouring at the gates for some time now but their numbers are climbing again!
Is it time to flip a coin, spit on a handshake?
LikeLike
Infection rates are rocketing here. Like other outbreaks, its the young who are the instigators. Unlike previous outbreaks, it seems to be sticking with them and not leeching through to older age groups.
It’s unspoken, even denied, but there is a simple reality to UK government policy, (and most governments will follow suit – the only differences will be at what vaccination/infection rate they choose to do so) which is: the virus will be allowed to run through the population.
Ultimately, there’s no alternative to such a policy unless one intends to maintain lockdowns forever. The unvaccinated will suffer, that’s just how it’s going to be. The older they are, the worse it’ll be.
LikeLiked by 1 person