Back in March, I graciously offered the world the benefit of my wisdom and provided a forecast of the coming coronavirus ridden months. The summary of which was, ‘It’s here forever, isn’t it?‘ Followed by ‘We’re fucked‘. And finished off with ‘The virus will kill millions. Probably tens of millions.’ I stand by those comments. But we’ve learned a lot in nine months, haven’t we? Some of which we could not have predicted. A lot of it, in my opinion, was either likely or obvious. The Swedish model clearly wasn’t the way to go. Lockdowns do work. Western democracies can’t do lockdowns properly. But who knew just how badly the media, governments and general population were going to completely lose their shit and go completely mad??
This week we’ve learned two things. A study in Manaus, where no meaningful restrictions were either mandated or voluntarily applied, estimated that 76% of the population have already been infected. And whilst the rate of infection has slowed considerably, it’s still working its way through the rest of the population. The likely point of herd immunity requires an attack rate as high as 94%. And that’s not what most people really mean by ‘herd immunity’. An unmitigated outbreak with an attack rate that high more closely resembles human sacrifice. The Great Barrington Declaration more closely resembles the Final Solution. There’s a whole bunch of caveats to be applied here, but the general point remains valid.
We’ve also learned that a new mutation of the virus is on the loose, and it’s made itself right at home here in the UK. Infection rates here are rocketing. Today, 35,000 new infections have been recorded, up from mid 20ks from the last couple days, which were big increases themselves. It seems likely we are in for a very tough few months. But this was always known, wasn’t it? Way back in spring, real experts (as opposed to Trev and Shazza of the Free Nutters Alliance on Facebook) voiced huge concern about what would happen come the winter. Some EU countries have already banned flights from the UK. But I am reasonably confident that this new mutation has already spread globally. If the rate of transmission is as high as is claimed, then the race between the virus and the vaccine just got interesting.
Last night Mrs P and I dined at our local Cafe Rouge. I’ve mentioned the place before. I really do like eating there. I had a boeuf bourginon, and it was very good. The photo above was shot from my seat. Most tables were full, but well spaced out. Families ate together. Everyone seemed to be enjoying themselves. We live in a Tier 2 area, which means life is close to normal. But there was a certain edge to the atmosphere. An edge I remember back at the end of February in London. An edge that was evident in the whole country by mid March as we headed into lockdown. It’s a collective feeling that something bad is coming. It’s just round the corned. There’s no dodging it. We kinda know what is coming.
We don’t quite know how bad it’ll be. But we know it could be very bad. And that’s in essence why there is an edge. It’s the unknown part that has everyone getting twitchy. So I savoured my dinner a little more than normal. Just in case it’s my last for a while.
The Mexile 
Pearls of wisdom. I give this one a ten! It is just too bad that we have to live in a world that appears to be lacking in hope. Being a bit of on the Polyanish side, I have no doubt that we will survive this. What I mean is that maybe not you or I necessarily but some will live beyond this nightmare.
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Let’s just hope that if only one human survives this, it isn’t Trump. That would be just too 2020…
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Live long and prosper.
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I have ski tickets in January, a flight as well. I may be eating that investment. It is roaring here in Ohio.
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Hopefully you’ll get a refund on the flights at least. We’ve had another 33,000 cases today. Mondays are typically when the lowest figures are recorded, what with the previous day being Sunday. The next two days should be interesting.
Things escalated rather, not long after I published this. We are now marooned on this island, with our fates rather in the hands of the EU. Yes, the irony…
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We can only hope this new variant strain does not affect the protection of the vaccines. Or we might be back to square one…
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I have read in a couple place (fingers crossed) that the vaccine will still be effective against the mutations… that it would take a high level of change over a long period of time to render the vaccine ineffective.
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From what I’ve read, the vaccine will still be effective. Initial reports suggested the virus was no deadlier. I’ve just been reading a report which suggests it may come with a higher viral load. Which wouldn’t be good. I don’t think…
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Every virologist with a computer and an opinion is flooding the internet about the mutation. I just read one guy, who, with no evidence (as the AP has taken to appending to politicians they do not like), has concluded that the mutation is a sign of hope. It means the virus is weakening.
In the Zombie movies,there is always one character who looks into a microscope and declares the same thing. Cut to next scene. Scientist’s face has been eaten by one of the Zombies who did not get the you-are-weakening memo.
If you like, you may combine that scene in your squirrel book and subsequent screenplay.
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And every virologist will have his or her attentive web based audience. And I do mean every virologist. The qualified virologists, the amateur virologists, the fake virologists and Trevor from Gerrards Cross whose YouTube channel has recently switched speciality from Brexit to Covid. And, arguably, some chap who goes by the moniker of The Mexile.
In my defence, I think the opinions I’ve published here have been pretty reasonable. My secret is simple. Read stuff written by smart people. Apply a bit of logic to determine what’s plausible. Combine the information into my own words using non committal language that allows room for back tracking. Hey, I know, my secret isn’t really a secret.
I think it’s very true to say that the amount of corona nonsense spewed out across the net is dictated by the audience. It’s just the traditional ‘supply meeting demand’ scenario. No one wants to endure lockdowns/restrictions. And there’s plenty of people who just want to hear that it’s all unnecessary to justify their own actions.
One particular grifter, Dr Mike Yeadon, has gotten a certain amount of right wing/conspiracy theorist traction. He has declared that the U.K. has reached herd immunity three times now. Once at the end of March, again in the summer and again just 19 days ago. On two occasions he has insisted that the pandemic is over. He’s been proven hopefully wrong each time, yet his fan club remains in thrall to him.
A rational person might question just how many times does he have to be wrong before people see him for what he is? The answer to that question, is that there is no limit to the number of times he can be wrong. He just needs to keep saying what people want to hear.
Now, on the other subject. I am genuinely surprised that news outlets haven’t made use of the phrase ‘fake evidence’ rather than ‘no evidence’. It’s more accurate and has a certain ironic twist to it, dontcha think?!
As for Old Lady Skerryvore. I think she just became a Typhoid Mary, carrying the Squirrel Mutation of the coronavirus.
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It has been a boon year for screen shot experts. They started out as constitutional lawyers then morphed to uncredentialed virologists followed up here after our flood as hydraulic engineers and are now parading about as public policy experts.
But they are not truly that different than the line of “experts” invited as guests on public interest (or no interest) television and radio programs. One of the curses the twentieth century bestowed on us was the notion that well-trained technocrats could run our lives for us far better than we could. They are also the type of people who can never find their car keys — an attribute that makes them charmingly human, but probably unqualified to tell me where I need to keep my keys.
I recall an interview on National Public Radio (America’s contribution to the Communal Thought Movement) when Al Gore shared the Nobel prize with a group of scientists who had actually done research on climate change. The moderator was interviewing a scientist who was not a member of the awarded group. (I assume NPR did not have enough clout to nab Gore for an interview.) She kept asking the scientist what governments now must do with the scientific research; what policies should be imposed on the public? The scientist repeatedly answered he was not qualified to answer her question. He was a scientist, not a public policy expert. The moderator continually whined: “But what about Al Gore?” It was a perfect example of distorting the scientific role.
And it is something we hear repeatedly from people who cannot logically defend their own conclusions. “I am just following the science,” which is on par with “God told me the answer.” Political leaders developing responses to the virus cannot simply listen to scientists. Their charge is far more complex. They need to listen to economists, medical personnel, educators, moralists, religious leaders, and a parcel of other disciplines, as well as listening to the voice of the people in whose name they act, because society is far more complex than simply listening to scientists.
I do not envy them the task. After all, they are always the cast members who end up beaming down to an unexplored planet in Star Trek as part of the security detail. You know they will not be beaming back up.
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I can’t argue with any of the points you make. Most of them, I nod sadly. The BBC has always prided itself in provided a fair and balanced service. Alas, at some point, a big wig decided that the most balanced thing to do after interviewing a smart, rational person who is an expert in their field is to interview an idiotic, irrational imbecile who knows not the first thing about which he or she speaks.
And whilst you and I have always (and likely always will) disagreed on just how much government we need in our lives, both Boris and Trump have done a decent job of moving me a little bit closer to your way of thinking.
As for the state of the internet. A lot of it is a conspiratorial mess. Happily, we occupy platforms that provide for a bit of light conversation rather than platforms from which we might influence the world. I think we can babble on safely for a while yet without fear of anyone mistaking us for anyone who must be taken too seriously.
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Love your comments, Steve. It would be great to see that combo of from the squirrel book and screen play! Just let me know where they will be selling tickets. I wonder too what they would call it?
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