A daring new mural is being painted on a wall along the prom, just metres from Bournemouth’s Pier. Being the typical easily pleased chap that I am, I find the painting pleasing to the eye. Admittedly, I do not yet know how the painting will turn out once all four corners are complete. Perhaps there’s an unpleasant surprise to come.
Incomplete data tends to embarrass even the most obviously correct and well intentioned assumptions. This week, indeed for most of the last year, similarly shaped graphs from different countries with different approaches to the coronavirus have been used to demonstrate the folly of lockdowns.
A frown shaped line cannot by itself differentiate between a small, zero fatality outbreak of a harmless rhinovirus and a more serious mass extinction event that kills 99% of all life on the planet. Even with limited raw data added, such as with the popular Florida v California comparison, any firm conclusion on the effectiveness of social restrictions is simply not possible.
But this much is true. Any infectious disease that depends on person to person contact will not spread if human interaction is eliminated. Otherwise, in normal conditions, the virus will spread in accordance with its degree of infectiousness and the environment. And then there are the areas in between. Any study that suggests this is true in one place but not in another is missing key data.
I will have to have another walk along the prom to see how the painting is going. I hope that the artist sees sense and moves that bothersome arm down to the ladies side. But I suspect I will be disappointed.
The Mexile 
No doubt you will keep abreast of the situation and update us accordingly..
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I shall do so. If I remember. I don’t always have the worlds greatest mammary.
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In political science we have two basic camps, the Normative crew and the Empirical gang. The Normative people dwell in the fancy idea realm, the Empirical eggheads like the numbers. What I’ve found is that both groups will tell you they are one or the other but in truth run more to the opposite. Getting good numbers is what trips up the Empirical group, they then fall too deeply into their pet theory, without the numbers to back them up. The Normative Political Science people cherry pick their numbers to an almost embarrassing degree to try and prove their point. The plague numbers and policy actions are being run by a bunch of political science people who are naturally conflicted by their house. But hay, we elected them…
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And then there are the Milk Gang. I kid you not. This is a senior-ish back bench Tory MP.
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Did you notice the hole in his foot when he stuck it in his mouth. That old fool will have a rough go in his next election. I hope he does not need his elected gig to get by because he is what I would call a short timer.
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He’s been an MP since 2005, holding a very safe Conservative seat. He’ll basically remain an MP for that constituency for as long as he desires, unchallenged. There’s quite a number of absolutely demented, foam at the mouth Tory MPs. They aren’t the greatest argument for democracy. Or perhaps they are. I don’t know.
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Very Nice Blog!!!!! 9:26 PM Join other followers on our blog…
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